A war with nowhere to go

Dear readers,

It’s been a tumultuous weekend — again. I wrote a couple of weeks ago about how this attritional conflict along the Lebanese-Israeli border, punctuated by occasional flare-ups, has become the new not-so-normal normal. Therefore, we should — sadly — now expect these moments, like we saw on Sunday, of intense, dramatic escalation from one side or another, followed by frantic diplomatic calls for calm, before a return to the standard rules of engagement.

With the prospect of a cease-fire looking slim, where does this conflict go from here ? The situation is starting to feel like a war with nowhere to go. All stakeholders are somewhat stuck. Hezbollah, Iran, Israel and their respective allies acknowledge that they cannot afford to be dragged into a wider, regional war — yet they can’t seem to find a way to bring it to an end.

Since October - following Hamas’ assault on Israel, Iran, Hezbollah and the Houthis have failed to establish deterrence against Israel. Their best bet out of this is the diplomatic route. Hamas, though, can’t agree to the grounds of the current cease-fire proposal after Israel introduced additional terms, which in turn is stalling any agreement on Lebanon’s southern border. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, though walking a tightrope to maintain domestic support, is in no great rush for a solution. His focus is to stay in power, waiting to see what the U.S. elections bring — while continuing the brutal military campaign in Gaza to « destroy Hamas » - amidst an ever-worsening humanitarian crisis in the enclave -- while tolerating the attritional conflict with Hezbollah on Israel’s northern borders.

Here are some key articles to guide you on where we are at.

Did Hezbollah’s strike succeed ?

On Sunday, Hezbollah finally retaliated against the killing of its military leader Fouad Shukur. According to Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, the party's main target was the Israeli Glilot base, where Unit 8200 of the Israeli army is located, and which is « 110 kilometers from the Lebanese border and 1,500 meters from Tel Aviv. » But did the strike hit its mark? ? Malek Jadah has been speaking to military experts to get their verdict.

Is Israel’s ‘preemptive strike success’ narrative credible ?

While Nasrallah claimed Hezbollah’s operation a « success, » the Israeli army also claimed one of its own. Since Sunday, the army has been publishing on social media how it « identified » Hezbollah’s plan before its launch and that it carried out « self-defense » strikes to stop it. But how credible is this narrative ? L’Orient Today’s Raphaël Abdelnour has been taking a look.

What impact will Hezbollah’s attack on Israel have on cease-fire talks ?

Hezbollah’s attack on Sunday seems to have been given the green light by Iran just hours before the resumption of cease-fire talks in Cairo — in an attempt to put pressure on Israel and the U.S. As Noura Doukhi writes, it gave a hint at what an all-out war between Hezbollah and Israel could be like, while also being part of a careful calculus by Hezbollah to avoid regional war. Read more here.

‘Hezbollah and Iran face a serious problem’

This is what our editor-in-chief Anthony Samrani wrote in his latest editorial. Iran’s « deterrence capabilities are severely eroded, and the tactical setbacks inflicted by Israel are becoming increasingly difficult to absorb. Strategic prospects for Iran and Hezbollah are beginning to darken. » As the war prolongs, the Axis of Resistance is « trapped by its own strategy. It cannot restore its deterrent capability without risking a direct confrontation with Israel and the United States — something it desperately wants to avoid. Iran’s attack on Israel last April failed to achieve its intended impact, and Hezbollah’s recent strike seems likely to follow the same path. » Learn more here.

What will Tehran do next ?

In early August, Iranian state media reported that the Islamic Republic and its regional affiliates would conduct a « quadrilateral operation » against Israel, suggesting the possible involvement of Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthi rebels and Iraqi militias. As Laure-Maïssa Farjallah writes, diplomacy with the West and a potential cease-fire are « an exit route that seems to be favored by Iran, especially after the first direct strikes on Israel last April failed to restore its deterrent capacity against Israel. Especially since this opens the door to a direct dialogue with the West, which could even go beyond Gaza to include discussions on nuclear power or the regional activities of the Islamic Republic. » Read more here.

Very best,

Olivia Le Poidevin

Head of L’Orient Today