Crunch time in Cairo: Gaza & Lebanon’s fate hang in the balance of a cease-fire deal

Dear readers,

It’s crunch time in Cairo. The U.S. wants a cease-fire deal by the end of this week. Diplomatics are working frantically to get their ‘bridging proposal’ over the line. It seems like a leviathan task. The messaging from Hamas – who has so far rejected the proposal, accusing Israel of moving the goalposts – and Netanyahu – who seems uncompromising on the sticking points of maintaining control of the Netzarim and Philadelphi corridors – don’t leave much room for optimism.

The stakes are high. Not only are we looking down the barrel of over 40,000 Palestinians killed in Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, alongside 1,600 people killed in Hamas’ assault on Israel, 116 hostages remaining in captivity, and a grave humanitarian disaster in Gaza – but also we are staring at the possibility of the Middle East descending into a wider regional war if negotiations fail. If there’s no deal Iran and Hezbollah will follow through with their threats of replying directly, and strongly, to the double assassinations of Hezbollah military commander, Fouad Shukur, in Beirut’s southern suburbs and Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran – which they attribute to Israel. And that could prompt Israel to raise the gauntlet further. The clock is ticking. And we'll have LIVE, daily coverage of cease-fire negotiations on our L’Orient Today LIVE Blog here.

Israel and Hezbollah trade blows while waiting for negotiations

While we await news of a deal in Cairo, the front between Hezbollah and Israel is flaring up. First, an Israeli strike targeted an alleged Hezbollah arms depot in Nabatieh, resulting in the death of 10 Syrian civilians, including children. Then Hezbollah launched a salvo of Katyusha rockets on Ayelet HaShahar, an Israeli site targeted for the first time since the beginning of this war. Read this roundup of the latest cross-border tensions here.

In the worst-case scenario – is Israel really ready to invade Lebanon imminently ?

As fears of a wider war surge, one question arises – in the worst-case scenario, would Israel actually be ready to invade Lebanon as they did in 2006 ? Well, Albin Skazola has found that Israel has deployed only about a quarter of its total combat brigades to the northern border with Lebanon – which may not be enough to launch a ground invasion, military experts say. Read more here.

Hezbollah tunnels

As tensions grow, so does the propaganda machine. Hezbollah released a new video, revealing tunnels on a scale far exceeding previous reports. As one military expert told L’Orient Today, it may be a calculated move by Hezbollah to deter potential Israeli military action. Find out more here.

When safety becomes a luxury

While diplomats race, and heads of state talk – people on the ground live the reality of this attritional and disruptive conflict between Hezbollah and Israel. Following threats of wider escalation, and Israel’s strike on Beirut’s southern suburbs a few weeks ago, many living in the area are seeking to move to mountain regions for safety – at a price. The cost of rent bil-jabal has become two to three times more expensive, as residents look to leave the capital amid growing security concerns – as Stephanie Bechara and Matthieu Karam report.

A big week ahead. You can keep track of the latest developments here on our Lebanon-Gaza LIVE blog. But also sign up to our L’Orient Today WhatsApp group for Breaking News alerts.

Very best,

Olivia Le Poidevin

Head of L’Orient Today