As sonic booms reverberate over Beirut, Lebanon waits nervously Hezbollah and Iran’s response

Dear readers,

It does feel like the mood is shifting, doesn’t it ? Up until now we have all been fairly confident that all-out regional war would be averted, with each side limiting their attacks to surgical strikes, or military targets. For nearly 10 months we have become accustomed to these rules of engagement. Beirut this morning was on tenterhooks as two loud sonic booms reverberated across the capital from an Israeli jet breaking the sound barrier — prompting WhatsApp groups to light up with panicked messages, while some others ran outside onto the streets to see what was happening.

Analysts have always warned that in the case of a regional conflagration, it wouldn’t happen overnight — rather it would be the result of a protracted slippery slope, marked by gradual escalations, crossing of red lines and miscalculations — driving all sides to increasingly put their fingers in their ears and disengage with international diplomatic efforts of de-escalation. And with the double assassination by Israel of senior Hezbollah military commander, Fouad Shukur in Beirut’s southern suburbs and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyehin Tehran last week — it seems we are sleepwalking towards that point, though maybe, just maybe, we’re not quite there yet.

What kind of response can we expect ?

In the preceding days Iran and Hezbollah have indicated the response will be different and that they may no longer « limit its response to military targets. » On Thursday Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah declared during a speech entering a « new phase » of its fighting with Israel and vowed a response to Shukur’s killing . As of today, there seems to be a more diluted message: Iran is not looking to escalate regional tensions but instead believes it needs to « punish » Israel to prevent further instability, according to the spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry.

As our Editor-in-Chief Anthony Samrani writes, this time it’s different,« Benjamin Netanyahu wants to turn the tables. And Ali Khamenei will hold on with all his might to prevent him from succeeding. In the end, there may not be a war. But there will be a winner and a loser. At least, that's what both of them seem convinced of. » Read more of his analysis here.

U.S. and Iran

L’Orient Today’s Mounir Rabih says the U.S. is working to « try and convince the Iranians to carry out a controlled response that would not lead to an escalation of the conflict. » However, the Iranians' position is clear, « not only do they insist on retaliating, but they hold the Americans responsible for Israeli actions. They also emphasized that their response will make the Israelis understand that Tehran is capable of restoring its deterrence capability. »

Emotions running high

It’s a tense and emotional time here in Lebanon. Just yesterday hundreds of people were gathered to remember those who died in the Aug. 4 explosion. Today, many Lebanese dual nationals and foreigners alike will join a steady flow of people who are leaving the country, following advice from their embassies. That’s if people can afford to leave. For the past few days, flights have been overpriced and scarce. Read more about that here.

The situation is moving quickly. You can keep track of the latest developments here on our Lebanon-Gaza LIVE blog. But also sign-up to our L’Orient Today WhatsApp group for Breaking News alerts.

Very best,

Olivia Le Poidevin

Head of L’Orient Today