Shock election results and what we can expect to happen on the Lebanese-Israeli border this summer

Dear  readers,

As you well know, Lebanon has forever been a country that is affected as much by what happens outside its borders, as by what occurs inside them.

Many here will be looking with interest at the outcome of Iran’s Presidential elections, where there was a surprise win for reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian, and France, a key player in current talks to end the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, had a shock result of its own in its parliamentary election, with the left alliance taking victory, upsetting the hopes of the right wing.

Though the UK has been a more low-key actor in the Middle East in recent years, questions have been raised on how, or if, its foreign policy towards the region could change as the country moves to the left for the first time in 14 years, following its general election on Friday.

Far right’s election gone wrong in France

On Sunday, France was staring down the barrel of welcoming its first far-right prime minister in the country’s parliamentary elections. It would have prompted significant political upheaval, reshaping France's domestic and international policies — including on Syria. But then the unexpected happened: The left won thanks to the hurried creation of an alliance, known as the New Popular Front, pushing the right’s National Rally to third position. But their win is not big enough for them to govern, meaning France will have a hung parliament. So, what lessons can we gain from this ? L'Orient Today's Laure-Maïssa Farjallah explains.

A surprise in Iran

The Iranian presidential election of a successor following the death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in May brought its own surprise on Saturday with the victory of the reformist candidate, Masoud Pezeshkian, over hardline conservative Saeed Jalili. Has the Tehran regime been caught in its own game ? Or is the victory instead a sign of the decision-makers' desire to bring the only reformist figure to power, for both internal and external considerations ? Noura Doukhi explores more here.

What will a major shift in political direction mean for the UK’s Middle East policy ?

Change is also in the air in the UK, with the Labour Party, led by Keir Starmer, winning the election for the first time in 14 years, ousting Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in a landslide victory on Thursday. After years of the UK taking somewhat of a back seat in its involvement in the region, what does this move to the left mean for the UK’s foreign policy in the Middle East ? I spoke to analysts from Chatham House and SOAS to find out more, here.

Lebanon-Israel conflict: 10 months and counting

The cross-border fighting between Hezbollah and Israel has entered its tenth month, with cross-border strikes continuing at their same attritional pace - except for some moments of heightened intensity.

In this ‘new normal’ of attritional conflict, those remaining in their villages in southern Lebanon attempt to maintain a sense of normalcy — and that means even continuing with school and exams. L’Orient Today’s Raphaël Abdelnour visited the small border town of Bazouriyeh, known to be the hometown of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah where high school seniors were taking their Lebanese Baccalaureate exams amid the fears of an Israeli strike. Read more here.

What can we expect during the summer in Lebanon ?

That’s a question that L’Orient-Le Jour Editor-in-Chief, Anthony Samrani, proposed. If you’re a French speaker, read his thoughts here. And if not, let me summarize them for you:

• First scenario: Truce in Gaza, Hezbollah and Israel reach an agreement at the Lebanon-Israel border soon after. More realistic scenario ? Israel stops intense fighting in Gaza without declaring a cease-fire, which would be enough to reach an agreement at the Lebanon-Israel border — if Hezbollah agrees.

• Second scenario: Intense fighting stops in Gaza and southern Lebanon. The war continues, but at a low intensity as Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu awaits to see if a more favorable U.S. administration is elected in November who could support an expanded war. It seems unlikely Israel’s government would accept no resolutions until the end of the year.

• Third scenario: Intense fighting stops in Gaza but negotiations fail at the Lebanon-Israel border. Israel intensifies its operation to force Hezbollah to accept a de facto reality. This scenario quickly turns into a total war, which Hezbollah does not want.

To help you take your mind off things, how about some art therapy and Persian food ?

And finally, two lighter things to help you muddle through these strange times. Marguerita Sejaan would like to encourage you to consider trying some art therapy as a way to process whatever is on your mind. And if you’re feeling a little peckish, then why not have a read of this review by our esteemed food critic, Cordon Courtine, who has found you a culinary gem, a Persian restaurant called Persian Cup, located in Ain al-Mreisseh, Beirut.

Very best.

Olivia Le Poidevin

Head of L’Orient Today