Lebanon treads water as diplomatic efforts continue to prevent an expanded war

Dear readers,

It’s a tense time. We’ve seen no shortage of alarming headlines from this side and the other side of the border in the last seven days — be it warnings of an expansion of war, or threats of an overwhelming military response.

One analyst used a phrase that I thought summed up the situation well, saying that while Hezbollah holds its attritional « support front, » it will be Israel that dictates the « scale and the heights of the flames » of the conflict. In recent days, during his visit to the U.S., Israeli Defense Minister, Yoav Galant reiterated the need to find a diplomatic solution to the situation in southern Lebanon, but reiterated that a military option is on the table, amid mounting pressure from the right wing to force Hezbollah north of the Litani River and to allow 60,000 residents displaced from their homes to return.

L’Orient Today journalist Mounir Rabih wrote that several official sources close to Hezbollah have heard from international diplomats indicating that diplomatic attempts have, so far, been successful in convincing Israel not to extend the war. As several security and diplomatic officials are expected in Beirut in the coming days, Mounir thinks « Lebanon can take a breather — at least until the end of July. » Still, the situation is dynamic, and any errant miscalculation — on either side — could rapidly change this assessment.

Netanyahu will address U.S. Congress on July 24 - during which, Rabih suggests, the Israeli prime minister will most likely announce victory against Hamas and the commencement of a third phase focusing on specific targets. The jury is still out on whether he’ll attempt to get U.S. backing for a wider military operation against Hezbollah, or if an end to the ground operation in Gaza will pave the way to negotiate a diplomatic solution in Lebanon. In the meantime, we’ll wait and see if US special envoy Amos Hochstein will return to Beirut and Tel Aviv for more talks.

Embassy warnings against travel to Lebanon

In recent days, a number of embassies issued advisories urging their citizens to avoid traveling to Lebanon or to leave it. We have put all the recommendations together in this article so you can keep track of how different countries are advising their citizens.

Lebanese political opposition to prospect of an expanded war

We are also seeing concerns raised on all sides of the political spectrum at the prospect of Israel expanding the war in southern Lebanon. Today, opposition MPs are holding a press conference in Parliament to express their position on the war and their fears of the dangers of its expansion. On Sunday, during a tour in Akkar,Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader Gebran Bassil said he was « against any policy that leads to war. » Another politician adding their voice to the wave of concern is former Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) leader Walid Joumblatt. He told L’Orient Today, in an exclusive interview, that he fears the clashes in southern Lebanon could turn into a full-scale war and set the whole region ablaze, describing hopes of a cease-fire in Gaza and disengagement in southern Lebanon as « illusory. » He believes that Netanyahu will make a « fiery speech against Iran » at the U.S. Congress « to bury, once and for all, the nuclear deal that former President Donald Trump torpedoed. » Read the exclusive interview here.

The war online and on the beaches

Meanwhile, the war continues both on the digital and physical front. L’Orient Today journalist Malek Jadah reports on how a verified Facebook page called « The Mossad, » which claims to belong to the Israeli foreign intelligence agency, is using targeted ads to seek information from Lebanese people.

In southern Lebanon, it was a particularly violent weekend of strikes, but people continue to go to the public beach of Sour, despite the security risk. When my colleague Wael Taleb and I were there recently, we witnessed an Israeli bombardment on Naqoura, with large plumes of smoke visible from the beach. A bizarre juxtaposition as beach clubs played loud electronic music and patrons smoked their argeeleh uninterrupted. As we also reported, Hezbollah MP and parliamentary bloc leader Mohammad Raad sparked controversy on social media when he called some Lebanese « reckless » and accused them of caring only about their comfort and relaxation, criticizing them for « going to the beach and nightclubs while the south is under attack. »

Did your visa to travel abroad get rejected ? You’re not the only one

And finally, this summer many of us will be hoping to get a change of air, escaping to cooler climes abroad. But many of you reading this may be familiar with this common problem: Paying lots of money to apply for a visa, only for it to be rejected. L’Orient Today’s Stephanie Bechara has been investigating how Lebanese passport holders have lost millions of dollars a year from denied visas, having paid application fees sometimes over $100 and getting nothing in return. Read more here.

Very best.

Olivia Le Poidevin

Head of L’Orient Today