Lebanon awaits its fate as Israel considers widening the war

Dear readers,

We’ve been here before. During the first weeks of the war in Gaza we all had the same question on our tongues: Will the conflict on southern Lebanon’s border escalate to a full-blown war, risking regional conflagration ? At every twist and turn we have seen deterrence and counter deterrence, escalatory and de-escalatory language from active actors trying to hold the line, and external actors desperate to keep this conflict at bay.

During this time, Hezbollah has consistently described its involvement in the war as that of a « support front » on the northern Israeli border, in « solidarity » with its « Axis of Resistance » ally, Hamas in Gaza. For nearly nine months, more than 90,000 residents of jnoub (the south of Lebanon) found themselves homeless, as daily exchanges of fire rendered life there unsafe and unpredictable. During this time Israel has continued its campaign of attritional daily strikes in southern Lebanon, the Bekaa and most recently close to Saida, killing more than 350 Hezbollah fingers in Lebanon and Syria, 74 civilians and 21 medics. Concurrently, it says it wishes to seek a diplomatic avenue to return its 60,000 displaced citizens home – or else it will consider solving the problem « in a different way. » Meanwhile, several international actors and diplomats have put forward their proposals for a political solution for peace along the border.

For months the editorial teams at L’Orient Today and L’Orient-Le Jour have been sure that if a wider war were to occur, it would be one that Lebanon would find itself reluctantly dragged into – and ill prepared for. The country is on its knees. People’s livelihoods have been crushed by five years of economic crisis ; two years of a political vacuum with no president elected to lead a government who must implement gravely needed reforms, in addition to open wounds left by the paralysis of justice following the Aug. 4 Beirut port blast. There are so many unresolved crises – war surely is the final stress test for a country already on the brink.

As our editor-in-chief Anthony Samrani wrote in his editorial today, either Hezbollah comes out of this conflict strengthened to the point of gaining a new dimension and profoundly altering the internal political equation, or it comes out more or less weakened and Lebanon partially destroyed. The hour of truth is coming.

Suffice to say, dear reader, this week is going to be tense. But we promise to guide you through it - telling you what you need to know. So let me give you a reading list of a few articles that will help you get a sense of where we are at.

America has shifted its tone - saying it would support Israel in an ‘all-out war' with Hezbolla

Senior U.S. officials have « reassured » an Israeli delegation — including Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi — visiting Washington last week that « should an all-out war break out on the northern border between Israel and Hezbollah, the Biden administration is fully prepared to support its ally, » CNN reported, citing a senior administration official. Read more updates on our daily LIVE blog about the war here.

Menacing speeches from Netanyahu and Nasrallah

In order to get a sense of where this conflict is heading, it’s important to closely analyze the words coming from Israel and Hezbollah. On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the « intense phase of the war with Hamas is about to end, » after which the focus of the Israeli army will shift to Lebanon's border. He said in an interview with Israel's Channel 14 that « after the end of the intense phase, we will have the opportunity to move some forces to the north. »

On Wednesday, we saw Hezbollah’s Secretary General, Hassan Nasrallah raise the heat in his tone. He warned Israel that his party had acquired new weapons that could cause direct losses in various parts of Israel, including deep into its territory. The speech was accompanied by the publication of a video of one of its drones flying over Haifa showing military and civilian sites identified, it says, as « targets ».

According to our reporter Mounir Rabih, it is being said in Hezbollah’s circles, however, that Nasrallah’s speech was aimed to « avoid war, » acting as a warning to Tel Aviv that if it opts for escalation, Hezbollah will target them by land, sea and air. Read more here on how Nasrallah’s rhetoric is about declaring war in order to avoid it.

But why is Nasrallah dragging Cyprus into the war ?

Our political reporter Yara Abi Akl explored this question for you after Nasrallah, for the first time since the start of the war in Gaza and south Lebanon, openly threatened Nicosia, saying that if it opens its airport and bases to the Israeli army to target Lebanon « it would mean that the Cypriot government is part of the war. » He made the comments in a speech on Wednesday, after saying that his group received information that Israeli soldiers are conducting maneuvers in mountainous areas similar to those of south Lebanon. Read more here.

Is Hezbollah really storing weapons at Beirut’s international airport ?

There has been strong reaction to a story published in the British daily newspaper The Telegraph on Sunday that « Hezbollah is storing huge quantities of Iranian weapons, missiles and explosives in Beirut’s main civilian airport, » according to airport « whistleblowers, » the paper claims.

A high-ranking official at the airport strongly denied the report – followed by the Caretaker Public Works and Transport Minister, Ali Hamieh, who dismissed it as a « campaign targeting the airport, » and « an attempt at destroying the tourism season in Lebanon. » Read more here:

Very best.

Olivia Le Poidevin

Head of L’Orient Today