The storm before the calm?

Dear readers,

It’s fair to say the word ‘escalation’ has been used too many times to describe the war of attrition that has run for 245 days along Lebanon’s southern border. But this week strikes between Hezbollah and the Israeli Army have reached new heights of intensity not seen since they last fought a war in 2006.

Israeli officials have been increasingly visiting the border with Lebanon recently, which points to Tel Aviv’s growing interest in the Lebanese front. With domestic pressure growing for some 60,000 evacuated people to be returned to their homes in northern Israel, pressure is mounting on Netanyahu’s government to find a solution, not just to the war in Gaza, but also on its northern border.

The question is, - are we witnessing a true escalation or evolving attempts at deterrence while the world awaits a potential cease-fire deal in Gaza ? As Mounir Rabih writes, on the one hand, Israel’s government’s decision to recall tens of thousands of reservists could be linked to preparations to expand the war with Hezbollah, even though the army has denied that this decision is linked to the Lebanese front. On the other hand, those advocating for a war argued that a major strike against Hezbollah is necessary to push it into an agreement, as Hezbollah has been able to deal a major blow to Israeli deterrence and its prestige that Tel Aviv cannot disregard. Consequently, this week diplomatic efforts have been stepped up to avoid the outbreak of a wider war in Lebanon –- which could spark a regional conflagration.

This week we have also seen concerns rise on the repeated targeting of hospitals, health centers, and paramedics by the Israeli army in southern Lebanon. Since the cross-border war began on Oct 8., 20 medics have been killed, many of whom belonged to health associations affiliated with Hezbollah and other political groups. Human Rights Watch told L'Orient Today it is « extremely alarmed » about the « large number » of health workers who have lost their lives to Israeli strikes.

US Embassy shooting

Fears of further instability in Lebanon were sparked by the shooting in the vicinity of the U.S. Embassy in Awkar, Metn, on Wednesday morning. It prompted numerous reactions in the political sphere, starting with the prime minister, several ministers, as well as political leaders and MPs from various parties, who saw it as an attack on relations between Beirut and Washington. But what message is the attack sending ? The shooter claimed he had acted in support of the people of Gaza. While security sources refused to speculate on the suspect's motivations, an unverified photo circulating online, purporting to be of the alleged shooter, shows him wearing a bulletproof vest with the Islamic State group’s insignia.

Keeping cool

And finally, I think we have all felt the June heat arrive this week. So, what better way to cool down than by reading all about the famous Hanna Mitri ice cream parlor ? Founded in 1948 in Achrafieh, this place has become a part of the Lebanese collective memory. Find out how, here.

Olivia Le Poidevin

Head of L’Orient Today