MIDDLE EAST WAR

Even if the Middle East war ends, energy crisis is here to stay

Markets have not reflected the full scale of the oil shock during the war.

Commercial ships as seen off the coast of Dubai, April 20, 2026. (Credit: AFP)

BEIRUT — The International Energy Agency warned on April 14 that the 2026 Iran war had triggered what it described as the largest and most severe oil supply shock in history. Yet, despite the cease-fire announced on April 8, the consequences of the energy shock – notably caused by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz – are likely to outlast the war itself.That concern had already been raised by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, who said in remarks to The Economist on March 26 that the risks stemming from the war were being “underestimated.” More from Stephanie Lebanon suffers at least $3 billion in war-related losses, Jaber says “There’s this kind of cognitive dissonance,” Lagarde said, describing what appears to be a widespread belief that once the war ends, everything will quickly return to normal. But markets, she...
BEIRUT — The International Energy Agency warned on April 14 that the 2026 Iran war had triggered what it described as the largest and most severe oil supply shock in history. Yet, despite the cease-fire announced on April 8, the consequences of the energy shock – notably caused by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz – are likely to outlast the war itself.That concern had already been raised by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, who said in remarks to The Economist on March 26 that the risks stemming from the war were being “underestimated.” More from Stephanie Lebanon suffers at least $3 billion in war-related losses, Jaber says “There’s this kind of cognitive dissonance,” Lagarde said, describing what appears to be a widespread belief that once the war ends, everything will quickly return to normal....
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