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Lebanon-Israel

Hezbollah’s dilemma: how to fight back without sparking off a war?

The pro-Iranian party could opt for a limited "deterrence" operation.

A photograph taken from near the southern Lebanese village of Kfar Kila shows the border wall with Israel, on August 26, 2019. AFP / Mahmoud ZAYYAT

Hezbollah’s Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah's harsh threats on Sunday -as Israel attacked the southern suburb of Beirut - raised serious concerns that this new confrontation could degenerate into a global war that could engulf the entire region.

Hassan Nasrallah, who is renowned for keeping his promises, reassured his audience that his party will react. The leader of the Shiite party has made it very clear: the recent attack that, for the first time since 2006, was directed at "a target in the southern suburbs" as well as –and especially- the Israeli air strikes that killed two Hezbollah fighters the days before near Damascus, have initiated a new phase "imposed by the enemy", and to which Hezbollah will soon respond.

"The issue of the retaliation is a given and way behind us. Now it's about deciding what the timing, the target and the means will be," Mohammad Afif, the head of the party’s communication office, told L’Orient-Le Jour.

According to sources close to Hezbollah, the real "target" mentioned by its chief could have been a leading Hezbollah figure, and not the party's communication center, where one of the drones actually exploded. This information is, according to the journalist Kassem Kassir, close to the Shiite party’s inner circle, "is not yet official."

Time and again, Hezbollah’s leader has hinted that any aggression directed against his party’s fighters will not go unpunished. This was the case particularly after the January 2015 assassination of Jihad Moghniye in the Syrian Golan, and that of Samir Kantar near Damascus in December 2015, both avenged by retaliatory operations against Israel in Shebaa.

But this will not be the case this time around, warned Hassan Nasrallah, who said that the response would be initiated in Lebanon and not in the Shebaa farms area, suggesting that the rules of the game have changed from his side as well. He pointed out that now that the core of the southern suburbs of Beirut were struck - a first since 2006 - a localized response is no longer an option in the light of the twin blows suffered by Hezbollah in recent days.

Another point made by the pro-iranian leader in his speech was the fact that the Lebanese government cannot prevent the party from retaliating or from stopping any process that is underway. "We, the Resistance, will not allow an approach of this type, whatever the price may be. The era when Israeli planes used to hit targets in Lebanon is over," he said. This is a clear reminder that the issue of peace or war is in Hezbollah’s hands and not the Lebanese state’s.

"The notion that Hezbollah has its hands and feet tied by its partners within the government -a situation on which Israel and the United States have been betting so far- is over for the party following these latest developments," commented Amal Saad, Professor of Political Science at the Lebanese University, and an expert in the Shiite party’s affairs. According to Saad, Nasrallah sent a strong message to his allies, namely the "Christian Street" -specifically the Aounist camp- clearly stating that he will no longer allow them to contain him.

While there is almost no doubt that there will be a response to Israel’s belligerence, it remains to be seen how large the response will be, and to what extent it will serve the interests of Hezbollah, which the United States have been trying to asphyxiate for months through a succession of painful sanctions. The Jewish State seems to have decided to contribute to the US policy of containment through occasional military operations targeting pro-Iranian militias in the region.

Given this fait accompli, Hezbollah will have to underscore its capabilities in its response, which should be proportionate in nature, without waking the beast that is a regional war and the disastrous consequences it would produce.

In Afif’s view, the party intends to undertake an operation that would be "a deterrent action with the precise aim of preventing a global war," a war which would drag the whole region into conflict. According to many analysts, the response will have to be punctual, and painful enough to hurt the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is already preparing for his electoral campaign by launching regional military actions. It will certainly not be intended to trigger global hostilities, the experts unanimously predict.

"Neither Hezbollah nor Israel would like to venture into a costly war that can no longer be confined to Lebanon and Israel, especially that the Lebanese, Iraqi and Syrian fronts are now united," said Mrs. Saad.

Saad believes that the response will probably take place shortly before the Israeli parliamentary elections, scheduled for September 17. The timing would be calculated to hurt Netanyahu in the polls. “It will be of the same scale, and probably with similar logistics, which is through the use of drones," she adds.

According to Mr. Kassir, Hezbollah is in a hurry and needs to react as soon as possible, so as not to "weaken the effect of the response". He thinks that the timing will not be linked to political events, but rather logistic considerations, conditioned by the ability to mobilize human and military resources in order to carry out the operation under the conditions defined by the party.

Even if Hezbollah wants to reassure observers that it has no intention of getting caught up into a full-blown war in Lebanon and elsewhere -a desire that would likely be shared by Israel and the United States-, no one can guarantee how any further conflict would play out, especially when considering potential mistakes and excesses from both sides.

It is therefore unsurprising that Hilal Khachan, a Hezbollah expert and professor at AUB, thinks that the Shiite party "does not have the possibility of provoking an escalation that will be disastrous for its image and its popular base".

Hezbollah finds itself in a dilemma: if it does not retaliate, it will lose face. And if it does, the party will not know what Benjamin Netanyahu's reaction will be and how big it could be. "By not reacting, Hezbollah will also pay a high price, but certainly not as high as if it was to react," said Khachan.


(This article was originally published in French in L'Orient-Le Jour on the 27th of August)

Hezbollah’s Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah's harsh threats on Sunday -as Israel attacked the southern suburb of Beirut - raised serious concerns that this new confrontation could degenerate into a global war that could engulf the entire region.Hassan Nasrallah, who is renowned for keeping his promises, reassured his audience that his party will react. The leader of the Shiite party has made...